In a significant setback for Somalia’s federal government, Mogadishu announced the withdrawal of its troops from the Lower Juba region on Thursday. The decision comes after federal forces suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Jubbaland’s regional army in the strategically important town of Ras Kamboni. This marks a clear victory for Jubbaland, whose leadership continues to resist the federal government’s attempts to impose its authority.
The withdrawal, framed by Mogadishu as an effort to “avoid bloodshed,” was, in reality, a forced retreat after federal forces were overwhelmed in fierce clashes. Jubbaland’s officials confirmed that their regional fighters had not only captured Ras Kamboni and its airport but had also compelled hundreds of federal troops to surrender. Reports from Kenyan authorities further revealed that 600 Somali soldiers fled across the border seeking refuge—a clear sign of the federal government’s failure on the battlefield.
Jubbaland, which shares borders with Kenya and Ethiopia, is one of Somalia’s semi-autonomous states and has long maintained a level of independence under its president, Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe. The state recently re-elected Madobe in a vote deemed illegal by Mogadishu, triggering tensions that culminated in the federal government’s ill-fated military intervention.
“This was an illegal war by the federal government, and they have paid the price for their aggression,” said Adan Ahmed Haji, Jubbaland’s Assistant Security Minister, during a press briefing. Haji expressed regret over the loss of life but asserted that Jubbaland’s forces had defended their sovereignty with resolve and discipline.
The embarrassing defeat is yet another blow to the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose efforts to control Somalia’s regions are increasingly backfiring. Jubbaland’s victory sends a powerful message to the federal government: the regional states will not bow to Mogadishu’s overreach.
Mogadishu’s justification for deploying troops—claiming they were there to take over African Union peacekeeping bases—has now been exposed as hollow. The real motive was to undermine Jubbaland’s legitimate government and its leadership, but the federal government underestimated the resolve and strength of Jubbaland’s forces.
Jubbaland’s success also serves as an example for other Somali regions like Puntland, which have similarly resisted Mogadishu’s centralizing ambitions. Puntland, known for its strong governance and relative stability, has consistently opposed the federal government’s interference. This latest development further highlights the growing isolation and ineffectiveness of Mogadishu in managing Somalia’s federal structure.
For Jubbaland, this victory solidifies its position as a regional power and a bastion of resistance against Mogadishu’s authoritarian tendencies. As the federal government retreats, it is clear that Jubbaland, much like Puntland, will continue to defend its autonomy and the will of its people, despite Mogadishu’s attempts to suppress it.