By Paulo Santos, Horn of Africa Analyst
Pretoria, South Africa – The recent meeting between Somalia and Ethiopia in Turkey, mediated by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has raised questions about the future of Somaliland and the broader Horn of Africa. While the two nations agreed to hold technical talks regarding Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland, Ethiopia’s apparent hesitance to finalize any deal suggests a calculated approach: waiting to see how U.S. policy under Donald Trump unfolds.
The focus is on whether Trump’s administration will become the first major global power to formally recognize Somaliland’s independence. Such recognition would dramatically alter the region’s political landscape, potentially pushing Somalia toward further fragmentation.
Ethiopia’s High-Stakes Gamble
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation reliant on its neighbors for sea access, has long sought strategic partnerships to ensure its economic and security interests. Its agreement with Somaliland, which includes the leasing of coastal land for a marine base, was a bold step toward securing a direct maritime foothold. However, Ethiopia’s leadership understands the risk of pushing ahead too quickly.
If Somaliland gains recognition, it could set a precedent for other regions in Somalia to follow suit, leading to a fractured Somali state. Ethiopia’s leaders, while eager to solidify the deal, are likely to delay any binding commitments until Trump’s stance becomes clear.
The potential recognition of Somaliland would shift alliances and redraw borders, creating a domino effect that could see Somalia splinter into two or three smaller states, including Jubaland and Puntland. This scenario could destabilize the region further, with implications for security, trade, and governance.
Somaliland: A Test Case for African Sovereignty
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has operated as a stable, self-governing entity for over three decades. Despite this, it remains unrecognized by the international community, which continues to uphold Somalia’s territorial integrity.
The prospect of U.S. recognition would be a major win for Somaliland’s aspirations and a blow to Somalia’s claims of sovereignty. It would also challenge the African Union’s long-standing opposition to redrawing borders, potentially encouraging other secessionist movements across the continent.
Trump’s Role in the Horn of Africa
Reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering a bold move to recognize Somaliland, citing its democratic credentials and strategic importance. Former UK Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson recently hinted that Somaliland’s recognition could be on Trump’s agenda, noting its successful elections and strategic partnerships.
For Ethiopia, the implications of Trump’s decision are profound. Recognition of Somaliland would cement its partnership with the breakaway state while potentially isolating Ethiopia from Somalia. On the other hand, Ethiopia must tread carefully to avoid alienating Somalia, a critical neighbor and ally.
What’s Next?
As Ethiopia delays firm commitments, all eyes are on Washington. A decision by Trump to recognize Somaliland could ignite a chain reaction, encouraging regions like Puntland and Jubaland to pursue their own bids for independence. For Somalia, already grappling with instability and militant threats from al-Shabab, this could mark the beginning of an irreversible decline.
Ethiopia’s cautious approach reflects the high stakes of this geopolitical gamble. While Turkey’s mediation has opened the door for dialogue, the ultimate outcome may depend on decisions made thousands of miles away in the White House.
In the coming months, the Horn of Africa may witness seismic shifts as Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Somalia navigate a complex web of diplomacy, regional ambitions, and global influence. For now, the future of Somaliland—and the unity of Somalia—hangs in the balance.