As Donald Trump eyes a return to the White House, the impact of his unconventional approach to foreign policy is being scrutinized, particularly regarding Africa. His past presidency and potential future decisions have raised questions about transactional politics, strategic partnerships, and the shifting tides of global diplomacy. At the center of these discussions lies Somaliland—a self-declared republic on the Horn of Africa—whose path toward international recognition could intertwine with Trump’s return and broader geopolitical calculations.
Trump’s Africa Policy: Pragmatism Over Principles
During his first presidency, Trump dismissed the multilateralism of previous administrations in favor of a direct, deal-oriented strategy. This approach resonated with some African leaders who prioritized results over rhetoric. It stood in stark contrast to the liberal peace framework espoused by Barack Obama and Joe Biden, which emphasized democracy, justice, and long-term stability.
Trump’s emphasis on results sometimes led to controversial decisions. His administration oversaw the scaling down of African Union (AU) peacekeeping missions and prioritized bilateral deals, often favoring autocrats willing to strike agreements. This shift, described by some as an “illiberal peace,” fundamentally altered how the U.S. engaged with African nations.
Somaliland: A Nation in Waiting
Amid these shifting dynamics, Somaliland has emerged as a focal point. A former British protectorate that declared independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland boasts stability, democratic governance, and its own institutions. Yet, it remains unrecognized on the world stage, with Somalia steadfastly claiming the territory.
Somaliland’s recent election, won decisively by opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), has highlighted its democratic credentials. Irro, a former parliament speaker, secured 64% of the vote, marking a significant political shift. The election, observed by international diplomats, reinforced Somaliland’s appeal as a stable partner in a volatile region.
The Strategic Value of Somaliland
Somaliland occupies a critical position along the Red Sea, one of the world’s most strategic maritime corridors. Its port city of Berbera has drawn international interest, particularly from Ethiopia, which signed a deal for access to the sea earlier this year. This agreement caused friction with Somalia, which views it as undermining its sovereignty.
Somaliland’s strategic location has not gone unnoticed in Washington. Reports indicate that Trump’s advisors are considering formal recognition of the territory—a move that would challenge decades of U.S. policy supporting a united Somalia. Sir Gavin Williamson, a former UK defense secretary and staunch advocate for Somaliland, has lobbied Trump’s team to take this step, emphasizing its potential benefits for Western allies.
A Game-Changer in Regional Politics
Recognition of Somaliland would have far-reaching implications. It could pave the way for Western use of the Berbera port, bolstering operations in the Red Sea and countering China’s growing influence in the region. Ethiopia’s support for Somaliland underscores its geopolitical significance, particularly as tensions with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continue to simmer.
However, the move would also risk escalating tensions with Somalia, which views Somaliland’s independence as a direct challenge to its territorial integrity. Neighboring states, including Kenya and Djibouti, would also face pressure to navigate the fallout, balancing their alliances and regional stability.
A Legacy of Unconventional Diplomacy
Trump’s potential support for Somaliland aligns with his broader approach to foreign policy. His administration’s Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, showcased his ability to broker high-stakes deals. While controversial, these agreements underscored Trump’s preference for pragmatic alliances over ideological commitments.
Similarly, in Africa, Trump prioritized direct negotiations. His administration facilitated Sudan’s agreement to normalize ties with Israel in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions—a move criticized for sidelining democratic reforms. In the Horn of Africa, Trump’s involvement in the Nile water dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt revealed his transactional style. His suggestion that Egypt might “blow up” Ethiopia’s dam underscored his penchant for blunt rhetoric, but it also highlighted his willingness to intervene in complex regional disputes.
Somaliland’s Growing Momentum
Somaliland’s case for recognition has gained traction in recent years. Sir Gavin Williamson’s efforts, including his honorary Somaliland citizenship, have raised the territory’s profile in the UK and beyond. Meanwhile, U.S. policymakers have reportedly warmed to the idea, viewing Somaliland as a stable ally in a region plagued by piracy, terrorism, and geopolitical rivalries.
Recent elections have further bolstered Somaliland’s image. The peaceful transfer of power and Irro’s victory demonstrate the territory’s commitment to democratic principles, offering a stark contrast to Somalia’s challenges with instability and extremism. This juxtaposition strengthens Somaliland’s case for recognition, particularly as global powers seek reliable partners in the Horn of Africa.
Challenges Ahead
While the prospect of recognition is enticing, significant hurdles remain. The AU, which prioritizes the territorial integrity of its member states, has consistently opposed Somaliland’s independence. Recognizing Somaliland would require careful navigation of regional politics, particularly as Somalia continues to grapple with internal conflicts and external pressures.
Moreover, the Biden administration’s cautious approach to Africa has left a vacuum that Trump’s transactional style could fill. If Trump were to return to the White House, his decisions on Somaliland, Ethiopia, and other regional issues could reshape the U.S.-Africa relationship for years to come.
The Broader Implications of Recognition
Formal recognition of Somaliland would mark a seismic shift in U.S. foreign policy. It would signal a departure from decades of multilateralism in favor of a pragmatic, results-driven approach. For Somaliland, it would open doors to international aid, trade, and security partnerships, accelerating its development and solidifying its role as a regional player.
For Trump, recognition would burnish his legacy as a disruptor of conventional diplomacy. It would also reinforce his reputation as a dealmaker willing to challenge established norms. However, the move would not be without risks, potentially exacerbating tensions in the Horn of Africa and drawing criticism from traditional allies.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment
As Somaliland awaits its fate on the global stage, the stakes could not be higher. Its quest for recognition reflects broader shifts in international relations, where transactional politics and strategic pragmatism increasingly define diplomacy. Whether Trump’s potential return to power will bring Somaliland closer to its goal remains uncertain, but the region’s strategic importance ensures that its story will remain at the forefront of global geopolitics.