In a recent interview, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty explained that Egypt’s military deployment to Somalia is intended to support the Somali government in asserting control over its territory. However, this declaration has sparked deeper concerns about Egypt’s true intentions and its potential effects on Somalia’s political and security situation, particularly in light of rising regional tensions.
The context for these remarks lies in Somalia’s recent tripartite agreement with Eritrea and Egypt during talks in Asmara. Both Cairo and Asmara affirmed their respect for Somalia’s sovereignty, a sharp contrast to Ethiopia’s moves, including a controversial naval base agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region in northern Somalia. Egyptian officials emphasized that their military involvement in Somalia aims to help protect the country from both internal militant threats and external encroachments, especially from Ethiopia, though Ethiopia was not named directly.
Egypt’s True Agenda in Somalia?
Some analysts, like Rashid Abdi from Sahan Research, believe that Egypt’s statements suggest a broader goal—specifically, a warning to Somaliland. Abdi argues that Egypt’s promise to enforce Somalia’s sovereignty hints at a possible naval blockade if Somaliland proceeds with its agreements with Ethiopia, potentially leading to further conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Egypt’s concern stems from Ethiopia’s increasing military presence along the Red Sea, which Cairo perceives as a direct threat to the security of the Suez Canal, especially with the ongoing tensions surrounding the Nile dam project. Egypt’s military involvement in Somalia might thus be part of a broader strategy to curb Ethiopia’s influence beyond the borders of Somaliland.
Internal Somali Tensions
Egypt’s planned deployment also coincides with a tense internal situation in Somalia, where the central government faces opposition from regional states—Southwest, Puntland, and Jubaland—that are resisting federal authority and pursuing independent elections. For years, Somalia’s federal government has struggled to exert control over these regions, with limited military reach beyond Mogadishu.
Egypt’s involvement could signal its willingness to collaborate with Somalia’s federal government in reining in rebellious regional leaders, similar to how Ethiopia backed former Somali President Farmajo. If Egyptian special forces are indeed operating in Mogadishu, their role may include helping the federal government suppress opposition leaders, especially those from the influential Hawiye clan, which has been at odds with current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
The Broader Implications
Opposition figures accuse President Mohamud of adopting authoritarian tactics, likening his approach to that of Eritrean leader Isaias Afwerki, who has been a key influence on both Mohamud and his predecessor, Farmajo. They argue that Mohamud’s alignment with Egypt’s el-Sisi and Afwerki points to a concerning shift toward dictatorship, potentially undermining democracy and governance in Somalia.
In the long term, questions remain about Egypt’s true military goals in Somalia. Will Egyptian troops focus on protecting Somalia from Ethiopia? Will they help combat the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab, an insurgency that has withstood international intervention for over a decade? Or will they focus on enforcing federal control over Somaliland and other autonomous regions? Experts stress that while foreign forces may offer temporary support, it is ultimately up to Somali forces to address these complex issues, a task that may be harder than Egypt’s optimistic statements suggest.