Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) – Ethiopia’s strategic ambitions in the Horn of Africa might be taking a dramatic turn as the landlocked nation weighs abandoning its controversial deal with Somaliland in favor of a more lucrative offer from Somalia, reportedly brokered with Türkiye’s assistance.
In a surprising development, sources close to the negotiations have hinted that Addis Ababa may reconsider its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with breakaway Somaliland, which had previously granted Ethiopia access to a vital port on the Red Sea coast. The agreement, signed on January 1st, 2024, was seen as a bold move to enhance Ethiopia’s trade capabilities by securing a much-needed outlet to international waters.
However, the winds of diplomacy appear to be shifting. Somalia, with Türkiye’s strong backing, is said to have presented Ethiopia with a “mouth-watering” offer that could potentially derail the Somaliland deal. Under this new arrangement, Somalia would grant Ethiopia access to one of its strategic ports, a proposition that could entice Ethiopia to abandon its earlier MoU with Somaliland.
This potential deal is not just about trade routes; it carries significant geopolitical implications. The foreign ministers of Ethiopia and Somalia recently met in Ankara, with Türkiye mediating the talks. According to insiders, the two countries have tentatively agreed to a reconciliation proposal championed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has positioned Türkiye as a key player in the region’s diplomatic chess game.
In a statement from Mogadishu on August 11, 2024, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud highlighted Türkiye’s vital role in fostering dialogue and peaceful resolutions to the region’s challenges. He also underscored Somalia’s readiness to collaborate economically with Ethiopia, provided that such cooperation respects Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The stakes are high for Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Erdoğan has reportedly conveyed that any progress in discussions hinges on Ethiopia formally distancing itself from its agreement with Somaliland. This could be seen as a diplomatic ultimatum, with the fate of Ethiopia’s regional ambitions hanging in the balance.
As of now, it remains unclear whether Ethiopia will indeed abandon its Somaliland deal, but the prospect of a new partnership with Somalia is undeniably alluring. The unfolding drama has left observers questioning whether Ethiopia will prioritize its economic interests over the delicate political balances in the region.
Will Ethiopia Turn Its Back on Somaliland?
As the situation develops, the key question is whether Ethiopia will ultimately decide to walk away from its deal with Somaliland in favor of Somalia’s offer. Such a move would not only shift regional alliances but could also escalate tensions in an already volatile region. The coming days will be critical in determining the future of Ethiopia’s foreign policy and its relations with its neighbors.
For now, all eyes are on Addis Ababa as the nation navigates these choppy diplomatic waters, with the international community watching closely.