By Paulo Santos, Horn of Africa Analyst
Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) – As Gaza faces relentless attacks from Israel, Egypt, often seen as a key player in the Arab world, has turned its attention elsewhere, signing a defense pact with Somalia. The move has raised eyebrows and questions about Cairo’s true intentions, especially as it appears more focused on expanding its influence in the Horn of Africa rather than assisting its Palestinian neighbors in their time of need.
In a high-profile meeting on August 14, 2024, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a defense pact and military cooperation protocol, signaling a significant deepening of ties between the two nations. The agreement, which strengthens Egypt’s presence in the strategically important Horn of Africa, comes at a time of heightened tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, primarily over Ethiopia’s controversial deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland.
This new alliance raises critical questions: Why is Egypt so eager to support Somalia, while seemingly turning a blind eye to the suffering in Gaza? The answer may lie in Cairo’s long-term strategic goals, particularly its desire to gain a foothold near Ethiopia, should tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) escalate into conflict.
Cairo’s Strategic Calculations
Egypt’s interest in Somalia is not purely altruistic. The Horn of Africa has become a geopolitical chessboard, with various powers vying for influence. By aligning with Somalia, Egypt gains a potential leverage point against Ethiopia, its long-time rival over the Nile River. The GERD, Ethiopia’s massive dam project on the Blue Nile, has been a source of intense friction between the two countries, with Egypt fearing it could significantly reduce its water supply.
By solidifying military ties with Somalia, Egypt positions itself strategically closer to Ethiopia, potentially creating a new front in the event of a future conflict over the dam. This defense pact could be seen as part of Egypt’s broader strategy to encircle Ethiopia with hostile neighbors, increasing pressure on Addis Ababa to acquiesce to Egyptian demands regarding the GERD.
A Stark Contrast with Gaza
Meanwhile, Gaza continues to suffer under Israeli bombardment, with little more than rhetoric coming from Egypt. Despite its historical role as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Cairo’s actions (or lack thereof) have left many questioning its commitment to the Palestinian cause. Egypt’s focus on military alliances and strategic positioning in the Horn of Africa contrasts sharply with its apparent indifference to the humanitarian crisis unfolding just across its border.
The defense pact with Somalia underscores this double standard. While Cairo extends military aid and support to Mogadishu, it has done little to alleviate the suffering in Gaza, where civilians face daily airstrikes and a crippling blockade. The glaring disparity highlights Egypt’s shifting priorities, with national interest seemingly taking precedence over regional solidarity.
The Bigger Picture
As Egypt deepens its ties with Somalia, it is clear that Cairo’s true focus is on countering Ethiopia’s influence in the region. The defense pact is not just about supporting a fellow Arab state but is a calculated move to secure Egypt’s strategic interests in the event of a confrontation over the Nile waters.
The question now is how this will affect the balance of power in the Horn of Africa. Will Ethiopia respond to Egypt’s maneuvering with increased assertiveness? And what will this mean for regional stability, which is already fragile due to the complex web of alliances and rivalries?
For the people of Gaza, however, Egypt’s latest moves serve as a bitter reminder that, in the game of geopolitics, humanitarian concerns are often overshadowed by national interests.